New Delhi: With the pace of industrial production continuing to fluctuate in the Kovid-hit domestic economy, market analysts say that the pace of vaccination and control of infection are necessary to improve demand and strengthen industrial activity in the market. According to the partial data released by the government on the Index of Industrial Production yesterday, the growth of industrial production in April stood at 134 per cent year-on-year, indicating a moderation in comparison to March this year.
The government has said that in view of the way industrial production was affected in the wake of the nationwide strict lockdown in April last year, it is not practical to compare the figures of April this year with that of the government. On the figure for the growth rate of industrial production for April 2021, Neesh Bhatt, founder and CEO of investment consultancy company Millwood Cane International, said that this time the figures cannot be compared with April last year because of the harsh lockdown in most parts of the country at that time. was applicable.
Bhat said the industrial growth in April this year was 13 per cent lower than in March. 'The second wave of Kovid has had an impact on the industry. This is also reflected in the figures for April. He said that only after the Kovid vaccination has reached a significant level, the corona virus infection is under control, and the governments are allowed to continue the legitimate business, the industrial work will come back strongly. Vivek Rathi, Director (Research), Knight Frank, a real estate market research firm, also said, “We believe that the role of the Kovid-19 vaccination campaign will be very important in the days ahead. This will boost consumer confidence and boost demand. This will enable utilization of production capacities and improve the rate of growth of industrial production.
Madhavi Arora, Chief Economist, Emkay Global Financial Services, said this year's industrial growth is showing a strong jump of 134 per cent in April, while activity has weakened due to a favorable basis of comparison. He said that the industrial production in April grew by 12 percent as compared to March 2021. In states like Maharashtra and Delhi, the local level of lockdown has affected production. Maharashtra contributes 18 per cent to the Gross Value Added (Manufacturing GVA) of the country's manufacturing sector. Madhavi estimates that 'if we assume that the maximum outbreak of Kovid-19 will be confined to the first quarter of this financial year and a large part of the population will have been vaccinated by the first half, then manufacturing and manufacturing in the second half due to the emergence of demand. Overall GDP growth will start showing improvement.
He says that after the first wave of Kovid-19, the graph of improvement in the economic condition was fluctuating in the 'K' shape of English. It had a bad and disruptive effect on the labor market. Fiscal stimulus was less than effective enough. In his opinion, the role of capital and profit in the improvement of economic activity will be more and it will hardly show improvement in the condition of labor market and wages. The government has decided not to release the full industrial production (IIP) figures for the month of April.
Last year also, the government did not release the IIP figures for the month of April due to the lockdown implemented due to the Kovid-19 epidemic. In June last year, the National Statistical Office (NSO) withheld the IIP data due to the impact on industrial production due to the nationwide lockdown on factory production. This year also the full figures for April are not being released. The IIP in April this year stood at 126.6 points, which is almost the same as that of April 2019. However, it shows a growth of 134 per cent over April last year, as industrial activities were largely closed in April last year. NSO said in a statement on Friday, "Due to Kovid-19, March, Due to the nationwide lockdown and other restrictions imposed in late 2020, most of the establishments could not operate in April 2020. Due to this industrial production was also negligible. Due to which the full figures of IIP have been affected. Hence the figures for April, 2021 cannot be compared with that of April 2020."