Washington: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday forecast India's economic growth rate to rise sharply to 12.5 percent in 2021. This growth rate will also be higher than that of China. However, China has been the only major economy, whose growth rate remained positive even during the epidemic in 2020. The IMF said in its annual global economic scenario that the growth rate of the Indian economy will come to around 6.9 percent in 2022.
The Monetary Fund has released this report ahead of its annual meeting with the World Bank. The Monetary Fund said that the Indian economy declined by a record 8 percent in 2020. But this year the growth rate is estimated to be 12.5 percent, which is much better. At the same time, China's growth rate is estimated to be 8.6 percent in 2021 and 5.6 percent in 2022. China grew by 2.3 percent last year and has been the only major country in the world to achieve positive economic growth even during the Kovid-19 epidemic.
IMF Chief Economist Geeta Gopinath said, "We are expecting a strong revival for the global economy as compared to earlier estimates." The growth rate of the global economy is estimated to be 6 percent in 2021 and 4.4 percent in 2022. "The world economy declined by 3.3 percent in the last year ie 2020. He wrote in the role of the report, "Although the scenario is different, the pace of revival within different countries and countries is different." At the same time, the risk of economic loss due to the crisis still remains. This poses major challenges for us. ''
According to the report, the global economy's decline of 3.3 percent in the year 2020 is 1.1 percentage points lower than the estimate of the world economic scenario released in October 2020. This suggests that the growth rate has been better than anticipated after the relaxation of 'lockdown' in most regions in the second half of the year. Also, it shows that the economy has accepted the new trend of functioning.
According to the report, the estimates of 2021 and 2022 are 0.8 percent and 0.2 percent higher than the world economic scenario in October 2020, respectively. This reflects the acceleration in revival with fiscal support and vaccination in some large economies. It said that in the medium term, the global growth rate may slow down to 3.3 percent.
Gopinath has written in a blog post that the epidemic is not over yet and infection cases are increasing in many countries. He said that the pace of revival varies between countries and within countries. This difference is greater in countries with no rapid implementation of vaccination, lack of adequate policy support, and greater dependence on tourism. Gopinath said that the policy makers would need to continue to support their economy with limited policy measures and high debt as compared to the pre-epidemic situation.